Rain can reach 300 mm in some cities of Rio Grande do Sul

Rain can reach 300 mm in some cities of Rio Grande do Sul

Rainfall volumes through Thursday can be exceptionally high in central points west and south of Rio Grande do Sul. Some cities could see volumes in this week’s sum of 200mm to 300mm, two to three times the average rainfall for the whole month of April. Extreme rain scenario in the middle of a multi-day storm surge between Argentina, Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul and what will be particularly intense in Argentina.

Cumulative precipitation is expected to be very high in the regions of Quaraí, Livramento, Rosário do Sul, São Gabriel, Dom Pedrito and Bagé. They can still be very high in the municipalities of the Serra do Sudeste and in the central points of the state between Santa Maria and the Rio Pardo and Taquari valleys.

Successive areas of instability associated with intense warm air advection from northern Argentina are forming between central, western and southern Rio Grande do Sul, with records of thunderstorms in which locally heavy to intense rain, very intense lightning, localized gales and hail.

The succession of areas of instability that form permanently or regenerate eventually produce very large volumes of rainfall in these regions with significantly high accumulations. On the other hand, in cities further north and northwest of the state, little to no precipitation is dominated by drier, warmer air.

Many clouds cover Rio Grande do Sul and it rains in most areas early in the day, heavy and with thunderstorms in isolated places. The rain is concentrated in the west, center and south of the state. Further northwest and north of Rio Grande do Sul, near Santa Catarina, it does not rain.

Throughout this Tuesday, the instability is concentrated in the East with rains interspersed with sunny openings while in the West the weather opens with sunshine and a strong warming due to the entry of drier and warmer air. The day is heavy and there is wind from the northern quadrant with gusts in the center and the western half, where it is warmer and with heat in the western border.

Latest rain forecast

The map below shows today’s 12Z rainfall forecast from MetSul’s WRF model with the rainfall trend up to 9am Thursday. Precipitation tends to exceed 100 mm in many areas of central, western and southern Rio Grande do Sul, with marks ranging from 200 mm to 300 mm in some places.

The map below shows today’s 72-hour 12Z turn rain trend from the German Icon weather model. The model indicates voluminous rainfall at points west and south of Rio Grande do Sul, although without the extreme accumulations indicated by the WRF.

The MetSul Meteorologia subscriber has access at any time to all the maps of this bulletin and many others with projections of accumulated rain, temperature, risk of frost, risk of hail, indices of atmospheric instability for storms, forecast charts and much more from our high resolution WRF model and major international weather models such as North American GFS, European, German Icon, Canadian and others. Check out our cards section and subscribe to metsul.com/subscribe.

how much did it rain

Precipitation volumes are already extremely high only with this Monday’s precipitation in part of Rio Grande do Sul, especially in the West, which reinforces the probability that the WRF model is correct in its rainfall projection of 200 mm to 300 mm in some municipalities. Even the possibility of rain exceeding 300 mm at certain points cannot be excluded.

The cumulative rainfall only from this Monday until 8 p.m. reached 180 mm in Quaraí, 149 mm in Rosário do Sul, 143 mm in Livramento, 100 mm in São Gabriel, 78 mm in Bagé, 55 mm in Caçapava do Sul and 52mm to Pedro. Osori. It rains a lot from the beginning on the border with Uruguay and there are floods.

MetSul warns that in the face of this extreme rainfall scenario, flooding and flooding are likely in urban and rural areas with the possibility of displacement of people. Another risk is the rise of streams and overflowing streams, in addition to the flooding of the rivers that cross these towns in the center and west of the state, such as Santa Maria and Ibirapuitã.

Laura Davis

"Total troublemaker. Alcohol aficionado. Social media specialist. Friendly travel nerd."

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